Last week, I looked back at some of 2022’s predictions, but this blog has made a lot of successful predictions over the years. In fact, I think it’s one of the core strengths of what I do here. I sometimes forget most people reading probably have not been around for Continue Reading
Grading My 2022 Predictions: Pretty Good!
At the beginning of the year, I did a silly thing. I made a bunch of predictions for the year. This blog has a pretty strong record of predictions over the years, but I had never fallen for the nonsense of making topical annual predictions…until this year. Now, the thing Continue Reading
Bubbles Aren’t Just For Stock Markets
Editor’s Note: I am breaking my rule about not writing about politics. However, I think you will see that, while there will be some political content in this post, I’m not going to discuss my personal views or promote either side. As always, I am sharing my observations. There is Continue Reading
Ian’s Brief #9: Informed Update, Football Predictions, and More
Haven’t done a brief for some time and have a number of topics to catch up on. If you’re just here for the annual NFL predictions, you can scroll to the bottom. Informed News First, we have our brand new logo to share… We had some excellent help on it Continue Reading
How Politicians Create Bad Outcomes From Good Intentions
Before we get started, I don’t do politics here unless there is a broadly applicable lesson and it affects markets. You shouldn’t read into any of what follows as an endorsement of one party or a denouncing of the other. That said, there are some pretty good lessons about unintended Continue Reading
What If There Is No Recession?
Informed Tip of the Week: If you haven’t already, please take a look at last week‘s announcement about our big new hire. Let me say upfront, I’m not saying whether I think there will or won’t be a recession. What I will say is that I find it interesting that Continue Reading
The Bitcoin Investment Thesis Is Broken
Informed Tip of the Week: Take a look at our recent series of posts covering Informed’s premise and our business model. We will be adding additional content over the next few weeks. At the beginning of the year, I wrote about most of the obvious bubbles out there and how Continue Reading
Elon Musk: Too Big To Fail?
Elon Musk never fails to surprise. No, I’m not talking about him buying Twitter. I’m talking about how he bought Twitter. He has made himself the first walking, talking LBO. What do I mean? While everyone focuses on how much debt he put on Twitter (a lot…the interest will likely Continue Reading
How The Era of Free Money Ends…Badly
I don’t think most people understand just how extraordinary a financial moment we’ve been living in for the past dozen or so years. We’ve all become so numb to the Fed printing money that we get distracted by more urgent matters like the latest election or the job growth number Continue Reading
Will the End of Covid Be Good for the Economy?
Editor’s note: I’ll have an update on what is going on at Informed later in the month. As Evan Greenberg likes to say….stay tuned! Editors’s note #2: Yes, I know LMND bought MILE last night, but this note was already written. We’ll get to that news some other time. For Continue Reading