This is going to be a bit nerdy, but hopefully it’s insightful. Probably the biggest difference I have seen between economic theory and reality is the lengthening of lags across the economy and markets. What do I mean by that? I mean if theory predicts it might take one year Continue Reading
S&P 6000: Irrational Exuberance
WARNING: I am not saying sell stocks today! It was over three years from Greenspan’s irrational exuberance speech until the top of the market. Rather, I am expressing the need for caution as you think about future stock returns. I have no idea when the top will come or how Continue Reading
The Dual Danger In Carry Trades
You’ve probably read a lot in the news recently about carry trades. Many of you may not fully understand what they are or why they matter. I’ll try to help explain that, but I also want to go beyond that and delve into how central banks enable these carry trades Continue Reading
The Age of Financial Repression Is Over
Editor’s Note: Carrier Management did a great profile on Informed. Please give it a look here. People sometimes forget they are living in a special period of history until many years later when they can look back on its consequences. The past 15 years have been a remarkable experiment in Continue Reading
New Year’s Flashback: Revisiting Past Predictions
Last week, I looked back at some of 2022’s predictions, but this blog has made a lot of successful predictions over the years. In fact, I think it’s one of the core strengths of what I do here. I sometimes forget most people reading probably have not been around for Continue Reading
Grading My 2022 Predictions: Pretty Good!
At the beginning of the year, I did a silly thing. I made a bunch of predictions for the year. This blog has a pretty strong record of predictions over the years, but I had never fallen for the nonsense of making topical annual predictions…until this year. Now, the thing Continue Reading
Bubbles Aren’t Just For Stock Markets
Editor’s Note: I am breaking my rule about not writing about politics. However, I think you will see that, while there will be some political content in this post, I’m not going to discuss my personal views or promote either side. As always, I am sharing my observations. There is Continue Reading
Ian’s Brief #9: Informed Update, Football Predictions, and More
Haven’t done a brief for some time and have a number of topics to catch up on. If you’re just here for the annual NFL predictions, you can scroll to the bottom. Informed News First, we have our brand new logo to share… We had some excellent help on it Continue Reading
How Politicians Create Bad Outcomes From Good Intentions
Before we get started, I don’t do politics here unless there is a broadly applicable lesson and it affects markets. You shouldn’t read into any of what follows as an endorsement of one party or a denouncing of the other. That said, there are some pretty good lessons about unintended Continue Reading
What If There Is No Recession?
Informed Tip of the Week: If you haven’t already, please take a look at last week‘s announcement about our big new hire. Let me say upfront, I’m not saying whether I think there will or won’t be a recession. What I will say is that I find it interesting that Continue Reading