Yes, insurers should participate in prediction markets. But maybe not in the way you think? To state the obvious, I’m not suggesting insurers should allocate some of their investment portfolios to whether the Yankees will win tonight. Rather, I think there is a role of insurers to offer proprietary products Continue Reading
The S&P Is Going To 10K (On The Way to 5K)
Honestly, I really think we’re going to 9000 before heading to 6000, so why say 10K and 5K? But let’s address the substance. Why make this call at all and, specifically, why now? Why make this call when the odds are high that it will be wrong? Why not? The Continue Reading
The Truth Behind Hedge Fund and Private Credit “Excess” Returns
I have a lot I’ve wanted to say about private credit and I will get to that at some point in the future, but before I do, I wanted to start with something simpler. Most people don’t understand that these alternative investment products (I assume private equity and venture capital Continue Reading
What Investors Are Getting Wrong About The Tech Selloff
For those of you who pay attention to more than just insurance, you are likely aware it was a bad week for tech stocks. Software stocks have been crushed due to fears that AI will make them irrelevant while large tech also sold off over fears they are investing too Continue Reading
The US Intel Investment Is Bad News For Insurers
Most of you have likely seen the news about the government taking a 10% stake in Intel. There are a lot of significant concerns raised by this action, but one issue, admittedly more local, I haven’t seen mentioned is the likely insured losses it creates. It’s probably worth doing a Continue Reading
The Tangled Web Nvidia Coreweaves
People like to say what is happening in tech today is nothing like the 2000 bubble. Companies are far more profitable and are less speculative, they say. While this is true for the most part, today’s note will point out some striking similarities in behavior today vs. 25 years ago. Continue Reading
The Greater Fool and the Persistence of Irrationality
This is going to be a bit nerdy, but hopefully it’s insightful. Probably the biggest difference I have seen between economic theory and reality is the lengthening of lags across the economy and markets. What do I mean by that? I mean if theory predicts it might take one year Continue Reading
S&P 6000: Irrational Exuberance
WARNING: I am not saying sell stocks today! It was over three years from Greenspan’s irrational exuberance speech until the top of the market. Rather, I am expressing the need for caution as you think about future stock returns. I have no idea when the top will come or how Continue Reading
The Dual Danger In Carry Trades
You’ve probably read a lot in the news recently about carry trades. Many of you may not fully understand what they are or why they matter. I’ll try to help explain that, but I also want to go beyond that and delve into how central banks enable these carry trades Continue Reading
The Age of Financial Repression Is Over
Editor’s Note: Carrier Management did a great profile on Informed. Please give it a look here. People sometimes forget they are living in a special period of history until many years later when they can look back on its consequences. The past 15 years have been a remarkable experiment in Continue Reading