Last week, I wrote about one of the worst possible risk-reward decisions. This week, I will make my case for one of the best. Now, before we start, some disclosures. I may own some of the stocks I talk about. You shouldn’t take what follows as a recommendation to buy Continue Reading
The Next Evolution In Investment Analytics
Summary:Analytics 1.0 = Find underpriced assetsAnalytics 1.1->1.9 = Keep frantically searching diminishing pool of underpriced assetsAnalytics 2.0 = Improve the quality of your own assets Most investors have no idea what they are good and bad at. They are stuck at Analytics 1.5. They need to evolve to Analytics 2.0. Continue Reading
Could The Fed Kill the P&C Trade?
P&C Stock Outperformance P&C Insurance stocks have been one of the better performing areas in the market YTD, largely driven by excitement over improvements in pricing. Several names are up over 30% on the year. When one looks a little closer at the pattern of outperformance, it becomes apparent that Continue Reading
Why the Uber and Lyft IPOs Failed
tl;dr Private markets distort valuations because there are only bulls setting prices Uber is down nearly 20% from its IPO with Lyft down over 30%. Someone must surely be to blame! Did the bankers give bad advice? Were the managements too greedy holding out for the best price? Did the Continue Reading
What We Really Can Learn From Buffett
There have been a lot of headlines out of the Berkshire Annual Meeting about how BRK stock has underperformed the S&P over a ten year period. Today, I will explore some of the reasons why. I’m sure some readers’ blood pressure readings already have spiked. How dare I criticize Buffett, Continue Reading
The Fundamental Flaw in Quant Models
Tl;dr version = this will be a lot of words about garbage in, garbage out! Key Highlights– The fundamental flaw in quant models is they are backwards looking and they assume that the past informs the future– Models that only work in “normal” times but fail in the tails are Continue Reading