People like to say what is happening in tech today is nothing like the 2000 bubble. Companies are far more profitable and are less speculative, they say. While this is true for the most part, today’s note will point out some striking similarities in behavior today vs. 25 years ago. Continue Reading
Allianz’s Foolish Bitcoin Bond Buying
Did you know Allianz is at the center of the biggest racket in financial markets since AIG was insuring mortgage CDOs? Some of you are probably familiar with MicroStrategy. They are the software firm led by Michael Saylor that morphed into a Bitcoin hedge fund (that doesn’t hedge!). After Satoshi Continue Reading
S&P 6000: Irrational Exuberance
WARNING: I am not saying sell stocks today! It was over three years from Greenspan’s irrational exuberance speech until the top of the market. Rather, I am expressing the need for caution as you think about future stock returns. I have no idea when the top will come or how Continue Reading
The Unexpected Reason Trump Social Stock Is A Buy
Editor’s note: The following is primarily for sophisticated investors and, even then, not investment advice. For the rest of the readers, hopefully it is an interesting lesson on how markets often don’t make sense. Truth Social, the Donald Trump social media platform, has been a fascinating stock to watch. DJT Continue Reading
Muddy Waters Attacks Fairfax With Unfair Facts
One thing I was well known for during my investing days was critiquing the sell side analysts. I’m sure many will tell you how they dreaded seeing an email response from me after they published a report. I had what I thought were fairly low expectations – the report should Continue Reading
My Best Investment Idea: Three Year Treasuries
Disclosure! Disclosure! Disclosure! This is not investment advice. I am only describing what I am doing. You should do whatever you think is best for you. So let me head off something right off the jump. I am not suggesting Treasuries will beat stocks over the next three years. I Continue Reading
Sell Your Berkshire Before It’s Too Late
This coming weekend is the annual Berkshire shareholder meeting, aka “Capitalist Woodstock”. However, like the other Woodstock, it’s been a long time since anything meaningful happened. While Warren is obviously an unparalleled success as an investor, I think even he would admit the annual letters and meetings over the last Continue Reading
How to Allocate Risk Assets In A Post Free Money World
Continuing my thoughts on how the end of the Financial Repression Era changes the rules…this week is for the CIOs out there, whether at insurance companies, pension funds, family offices, etc. How do you need to think about risky asset classes differently now that there is, once again, a cost Continue Reading
Personal Investing Advice: You’re Probably Overlooking Opportunity Cost
Let’s start with the disclaimer. I’m not telling you what to buy. I’m not telling you what not to buy. I am merely sharing interesting ideas that you can decide whether they have merit or not for your situation. Today, we will talk about the pros and cons of buying Continue Reading
How To Win When A Bubble Pops? Be Captain Obvious
Informed Tip of the Week: Check out our recent comments in Business Insider about how to make sure you have an accurate replacement value for your home. You can read further thoughts on the topic here and here. You’ve all seen the Captain Obvious commercials I’m sure. I’m not going Continue Reading