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The New Safest Trade In America: Series I Bonds

Posted On April 19, 2022April 19, 2022 By Ian

Informed Tip of the Week: If you’re looking for other investment alternatives with more growth potential, Informed will soon be launching its seed round. We will be raising money from individuals (accredited investors) and institutions. If you read this blog, you are welcome to inquire about investing. To learn more, Continue Reading

Category: Entries

How The Era of Free Money Ends…Badly

Posted On December 8, 2021December 8, 2021 By Ian2 Comments

I don’t think most people understand just how extraordinary a financial moment we’ve been living in for the past dozen or so years. We’ve all become so numb to the Fed printing money that we get distracted by more urgent matters like the latest election or the job growth number Continue Reading

Category: Entries

Recurring Transitory Inflation and Personal Lines Profitability

Posted On October 11, 2021October 11, 2021 By Ian3 Comments

With Fed Chair Powell changing his tune about “transitory” inflation, I thought it would be worthwhile to begin a deep dive on the challenges inflation brings to insurers because there appears to be a lot of false confidence out there. I guess that makes insurance companies more like the Fed Continue Reading

Category: Entries

Path Dependency, Shortages, and the Future of Inflation

Posted On May 13, 2021May 13, 2021 By Ian

I’ve written a number of times about the Fed and inflation, both with regard to asset prices and in the general price of goods. While the concern over inflation is arguably now consensus, and thus worth questioning if it has been overplayed, I actually think it is just the opposite. Continue Reading

Category: Entries

The Socializing of Debt Bubbles aka Leverage Has Costs

Posted On January 4, 2021January 4, 2021 By Ian1 Comment

As the US government debates how much “free” money to give out as stimulus, I realized there is something important missing from the conversation. Where does this free money come from? And do we have to pay it back to someone? Given the desire to keep raising the bid on Continue Reading

Category: Entries

The Fed Copies Progressive’s Approach to Target Messaging

Posted On September 1, 2020September 1, 2020 By Ian

Last week, the Fed updated its approach to managing inflation. Rather than maintain its old target of keeping inflation under 2%, it has now moved to allowing inflation to average 2%. This obviously suggests there will be times where the Fed is comfortable with inflation over 2% in order to Continue Reading

Category: Entries

Does Inflation Deserve Its Bad Reputation?

Posted On August 25, 2020August 30, 2020 By Ian

How’s that for a provocative title? American policymakers have lived in fear of inflation since the 70s. But that’s nothing! The Germans have feared it for approaching 100 years! But is inflation really that bad? Certainly, uncontrolled inflation is disastrous. Nobody wants the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe. But what if Continue Reading

Category: Entries

Asset Inflation is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon

Posted On July 20, 2020August 30, 2020 By Ian

The great Milton Friedman had many famous quotes. Probably the most well known is the one about there being no such thing as a free lunch (not originally his, but he popularized it). But perhaps the most influential, at least for me, was his observation that “inflation is always and Continue Reading

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