I know a lot of people are drafting their fantasy football teams this weekend and I just looked back and it’s been one, two, three, wow, four years since I wrote my tips to win your league.
So I thought I’d do a quick update for the holiday weekend and be back with more substantive topics next week. Picking football players is no different than picking stocks. You’re trying to balance risk with reward.
What follows is an abbreviated version as well as my annual playoff and Super Bowl Predictions (click here if you want to skip straight to those).
The Early Rounds
Do: Take the sure thing
Don’t: Pick based on what you hope someone will be
A lot of big mistakes get made in the first four rounds. People talk themselves into players, whether it be a rookie, a player on a new team, or an ascending player who looks like he’ll have a bigger role this year. They look at the potential best case, which is reasonable, but assign too high a probability to it.
The key in the early rounds is not making mistakes. You’re better off reducing risk and taking a player with less upside but more certainty of being a valuable starter.
If you get four above average starters in your first four picks, your team will be in the race all year. If you have two busts, your team is probably done, even if you hit big on the other two.
The Middle Rounds
Do: Look for players in favorable situations with uncertain opportunities
Don’t: Draft marginal safe starters
This is a little bit the opposite of the early rounds, because the risk/reward has changed. You win your league finding breakout players in the mid rounds.
The best way to find overachievers is to look for favorable team situations where the individual player’s expectations are low. Usually this happens where a team is expected to be high scoring and they have one star but an opportunity for a second star to emerge.
Another case would be where you take the lesser back in a timeshare because you think he can give you replacement value most weeks, but if his partner gets injured, he will vault to a top 10 RB.
If you were to extrapolate from what types of players you want in these rounds to which ones you don’t, you would conclude don’t draft those marginal starters. Yet, people love to spend the middle rounds drafting veteran receivers who will give you 7 pts/wk or starting RBs who get lots of carries but hardly ever touchdowns.
These players have little to no value even if their season stats look good. You can usually find an equivalent player on the waiver wire.
The Later Rounds
Do: Swing for the fences
Don’t: Take OK players to fill out your bench
The main thing people forget is most of the back half of your draft ends up being cut eventually to make room for waiver pickups during the season. These picks don’t tend to make a difference.
Therefore, there is little value in taking safe players that you’ll only start in a bye week.
Let’s do a thought experiment: Would you rather have a player who gives you four weeks of 15+ points and 10 weeks of nothing or the player who gives you 14 weeks of 6-10 points? Most people take the latter because he has more points over the season.
The problem with that thinking is the second player is giving you the bare minimum to get off your bench. Ideally, he would be on your bench…which means he is really no better than a bench player who gives you 0. Those four weeks of 15 points though are really valuable.
If I don’t want to draft a predictable player with marginal value, what do I suggest instead? Take some fliers! People don’t like to look stupid so they’d rather take a known player than draft a backup RB who won’t play most weeks, if at all.
Don’t take the known veteran. Gamble. Maybe a young guy takes a big league forward. And if you’re wrong, you cut him for one of the old vets sitting on waivers. It’s a free option!
Know Your Risk
Take less risk early in the draft and more risk late in the draft. If you get lucky in the late rounds, you’re in great shape to win your league.
Season Predictions
Just a reminder of the rules for how I do this. Typically, half the playoff teams don’t make it back the next year. So these aren’t chalk predictions where I pick 12 of last year’s 14 teams to make it back. Nope, only 7 are allowed.
Teams returning: Bills, Ravens, Jaguars, Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys, Seahawks
Teams out: Dolphins, Bengals, Chargers, Giants, Vikings, Bucs, Niners
New arrivals: Jets, Steelers, Browns, Commanders, Lions, Packers, Saints
The most reaction will probably be to the teams out, particularly the Bengals and Niners. I am more confident in the Niners missing.
I am not convinced they have a QB and, without a QB, it’s hard to make the playoffs. It’s a bit like the fantasy advice. They are too high risk to be a Super Bowl favorite.
The Bengals are a victim of a tough schedule and division. I have them 11-6 but last in the North! That sounds crazy, but I think that division is stacked.
You could toss the Ravens and keep the Bengals just as easily, but I don’t see both of them making it back.
Out of the new teams, the big swings for me are the Steelers and Saints as you’ll see below. I think they both can be 12 win teams.
The Saints have one of the easiest schedules in the league and should be this year’s version of last season’s Vikings.
As for the Steelers, every year there is a young QB who surprises and his team way outperforms. The candidates this year are the Bears, Packers, and Steelers. There is lots of positive buzz about the Steelers this preseason and I’m choosing to believe it’s real.
Super Bowl Picks
The AFC is the far superior conference. That also makes it harder to pick a winner because there are so many good candidates. Therefore, lets start with the NFC.
The Eagles are the best team and have the shortest odds. The Niners are the second favorite and I already told you they’re not making the playoffs. So this is easy, take the Eagles, right?
Not so fast. There’s one problem. The second best team in the NFC is in their division. If the Cowboys win the division, the Eagles get a wild card and have to win three road games which is tough.
Yet, the Cowboys odds are twice the Eagles at 15-1. I hate to say it but I’m actually picking Dallas out of the NFC.
Returning to the AFC, the three big favorites are the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals. I told you the Bengals may miss the playoffs. The Bills are risky too as they are also in a tough division. The Chiefs are by far the safest of the three, so out of those I would take the Chiefs.
If you want to look elsewhere, I would check out the Ravens at 18-1 over the Bengals at 10-1 as there is big upside if their new offense works out. The Jaguars are interesting at 30-1 because they have an easy path to the playoffs due to their weak division.
The Jags are the best value as they have much in common with the Bengals of two years ago or the Bills a couple years before that. They have an ascending QB with a really good coach and an improving D.
Given they have a great shot at the #2 seed given their schedule, I’d rather take them at 30-1 than the Chiefs at 6-1.
So I’m going Cowboys over the Jaguars in the Super Bowl this year. They’re the best risk adjusted returns on the board.
Longshots
Final footnote: If you’re looking for longshots, I mentioned the Steelers and Saints above. The Steelers are as high as 60-1! That’s insane. Yes, they have a tough division and the offense may not improve, but if it does, they can be the #2 seed in the AFC with a little luck.
The Saints are 40-1. I told you how weak the NFC is. Outside the Eagles and Cowboys, there really isn’t a third good option. But the Saints will likely be the #2 seed due to their schedule. They’re an above average, but by no means great, team.
A #2 seed though can easily catch a break and make the Super Bowl. It’s hard to imagine them winning it, so maybe they’re a better bet to win the NFC at 16-1 (there are 16 NFC teams, so they’re being treated as average) than the Super Bowl.
Summary
I’m always trying to beat the obvious favorites because that’s no fun and they’re overbet. So yes, the Eagles and Chiefs are the two best teams, but I’m going Cowboys-Jaguars.
My two big surprise teams this year are the Steelers and Saints and my big fade is the Niners. We’ll check back in January and see how I did.