Since a) it’s earnings week and b) the NBA just started back up, I thought it was time for a lighter topic. I have five out of the box ideas to improve the product. If anyone reading this has Adam Silver or Michele Roberts’ email or can DM them on twitter, please forward this along as I think they’ll really like these ideas!
Shorten the Season to 64 Games
This is one often discussed, so not as groundbreaking as what follows, but I wanted to run through why the concerns about the financial impacts are overdone. Very simply, ratings per game will go up because the quality of play will be better. Also, the number of televised games doesn’t need to be cut as much as the actual games. Instead, more teams will get national games.
First, why 64? It’s not a magic number but it a nice even number (2^6), it’s a familiar basketball # (from the NCAA tournament), and it works well for scheduling.
Strategically, it eliminates the problem of “load management” as players have no excuse to not suit up for all 64 games. This will help ticket sales as you don’t have to worry about going to see a team and having it’s star take the night off.
It also makes every game matter more. One of the big complaints today is the quality of regular season games compared to the playoffs. This is partly a function of fatigue and partly due to the limited importance of regular season games on playoff seeding.
The reason the NFL is so successful is every game is incredibly urgent. The NBA can never get to that level, but a 64 game season means taking too many games off will hurt you in the playoff race.
Regarding the revenue impact, yes stadium revenue will go down 20%. However, I think TV revenue over time would increase. If on any given night, there are five solid options for a national game, that will shrink to four. The average viewer won’t notice. The depth of the league is too good now and it will help to showcase more young players who aren’t on the top five teams. If the quality of game is better and the games matter more, the ratings will be higher.
As for the mechanics, I would play 24 games in division (so 4 teams x 6 games), 20 conference games (10 teams x 2) and 20 non-conference games = home & home with 10 of the 15 teams (so over a three year rotation, you play every team in the other conference four times = 2 home & 2 away).
Introducing the Four Point Shot
OK, now I’m going to turn up the crazy factor. The three point shot has become overpowered. The expected value of most two point shots is around 0.8 (40% x 2 points) whereas even a poor 3-point shooter can make 30% of their tries for an EV of 0.9. One modification often suggested is to push back the three point line to make it harder. The problem is you start running out of space in the corners. Do we have another option?
Yes, yes we do. We change the math! A shot from behind the line is now worth FOUR points if you make it, BUT you LOSE a point if you miss!
We have now dramatically changed the EV in a way that re-balances the game. That 30% shooter now has an EV of just 0.5 (0.3 x 4 – 0.7 x 1). That is equivalent to a 25% shot from two. This player will no longer try any threes.
However, a 40% shooter will still take plenty of threes – as they should – as they still have an expected value of 1.0. See the chart below for the new and old math but essentially the breakeven between 2s and 3s moves to 36% vs. today’s 27%.
| 3 pt % | Old EV | > 2 pt EV? | New EV | > 2pt EV? | Old FG% Equivalent |
| 40% | 1.20 | Yes | 1.00 | Yes | 33.3% |
| 37% | 1.11 | Yes | 0.85 | Yes | 28.3% |
| 35% | 1.05 | Yes | 0.75 | No | 25% |
| 33% | 0.99 | Yes | 0.65 | No | 21.7% |
| 30% | 0.90 | Yes | 0.50 | No | 16.7% |
In addition to bringing the game back in to balance, the -1 risk creates a lot more strategy and a lot more excitement. Will teams stop taking 3s when they get a lead or go for the 4 point kill? Think about end of game comebacks…no lead will ever be safe if you get hot late. In a tie game, you are no longer going to consider a 3 for the last shot. There is a ton of strategy that will open up once the analytics groups analyze the options.
Overhaul the Playoffs
The biggest problem with the NBA playoffs is that it is too predictable due to seven game series. The success of the NCAA lies in its single elimination “anything can happen” nature. While that isn’t practical for the NBA financially (extra games means more $), I have a hybrid idea that I think would increase interest.
The New 24 Team Playoff
Expand the playoffs to 24 teams. The top four seeds in each conference get a bye. Seeds 5 through 12 play in a single elimination round! This will reduce tanking especially when paired with my lottery idea below (no peeking!).
The winners of the first round play the top four seeds in a best of five (down from seven – rarely are seven games needed in the first round) to increase the odds of an upset (unless we institute “Double or Nothing” – see below). I’d also suggest the top four seeds should be the three division winners and the best non-division winner. Make the divisions matter again!
The Doubler!
If you really want to bring some March Madness style excitement to the playoffs though, it’s time to consider “Double or Nothing”! Each team can pick one home game in the round to count for two wins (as long as the other team hasn’t won three games yet)!
For example, if the home team wins game one, they might want to double game two so they can gain a 3-0 lead before hitting the road. Of course, if they get upset, they are down 2-1 and the underdog can double game three and end the series at 4-1!
While I’m sure some at the NBA will worry about the revenue impact from fewer playoff games, imagine what the ratings do on Doubler Nights! I actually don’t think they would be used all that often, but certainly if you’re the underdog and if you’re down two games to one, you would want to double game four to try to go up 3-2 even if it risks elimination (since if you go down 3-1 you’re in big trouble anyway).
I’m sure this is too out there for the NBA to try, but I love this idea. It would make the NBA playoffs a must watch spectacle. Someone tell Adam Silver we need Double or Nothing!
A Much Better Draft Lottery
As mentioned, I have an interesting way to reduce tanking. We are going to change the lottery to a three point shooting contest! Hear me out, this is an amazing idea!
We still have 14 teams eligible for the #1 pick like before – the six non playoff teams and the last eight playoff teams. The eight playoff teams are seeded by their one game playoff performance (so the team that lost by the most in their playoff game starts at seed 14 while the team that lost by the least, or even won a game, starts at seed 7 = you now have an incentive to make the playoffs and do well!).
OK, so what now? Seeds 10-14 send their team’s best three point shooter to the lottery. They shoot five balls and whoever makes the most wins (don’t worry I have plans for ties, but I’ll explain that to Silver when he calls). The losing four teams pick 11th through 14th (based on their shooting finish) while the winner plays on.
Next, we have round 2 which is the winner of round one and seeds 7-9. Round 3 is the winner of round 2 vs. seeds 4-6. Finally, there is the Finals where it is the Round 3 winner vs. the top 3 seeds and they are shooting for picks 1-4 in the lottery.
Now, I’ve taken a five minute lotto ball drawing and turned in into an hour long show that you can’t turn away from! Will the 14 seed shoot all the way up to #1? Will the best three point shooter choke and blow the #1 pick? This is made for TV drama!
There is similar variability in results to the current system though you can’t fall quite as far (e.g. a 6 seed can’t fall past the 7th pick). On the other hand, the only real spot worth tanking to is 3rd.
You’d rather make the playoffs now than be 6th, so the only real disadvantage is 4th vs. 3rd. However, 4th is no different from 5th or 6th and, more importantly, 1st seed has no advantage over 2nd or 3rd.
And yes, there are rules on who is eligible to be the team’s designated shooter. It can’t be a ringer. It has to be someone who meets a minimum playing threshold over the season. I am happy to explain in detail to the Commissioner.
Fixing One & Done
Now that we’ve fixed the lottery, we can fix the draft itself! The whole “one & done” system has been a failure. If players want to go to college, they should go for at least two years or not at all. Having a one year “house arrest” isn’t good for anyone.
By now, you’ve probably figured out I’m not going to suggest a simple two year minimum. Nope! I’ve got a better idea…
- High school players can declare for the draft BUT they have to go to the G League for two years UNLESS they are taken in the lottery.
- Once a player attends college, he can not join the NBA for two years.
This accomplishes so many positive things. First, it helps the college game by giving it more continuity. Second, it makes the G League a viable minor league. I suspect over time every team will have one or two high schoolers on their G league team which will increase interest in the product. Third, it adds a ton of intrigue to the late lottery picks.
Think of the strategy if I am picking 13th or 14th, do I take a high school player with a lot of upside so I can get him into my system and have him learn from the vets or do I take a college junior who can help right away? If I am in the mid or late teens, do I take a high schooler knowing he isn’t allowed to play for me for two years but he might be an All Star in five years?
So I’ve increased the interest in the draft, I’ve increased the interest in the G League, and I’ve increased the interest in college basketball. All while giving more options to high school players (instead of college or overseas, they now have a real minor league option).
Playoff Predictions
So those are my five great ideas for the NBA! I look forward to seeing them all implemented immediately! For bonus content, here are my predictions for the year. These were all made a week ago (you’ll have to trust me – the fact that I left the Kings in the playoffs should be all the proof you need).
| Seed | EAST | WEST |
| #1 | Milwaukee | Clippers |
| #2 | Philadelphia | Houston |
| #3 | Boston | Utah |
| #4 | Indiana | Lakers |
| #5 | Orlando | Denver |
| #6 | Toronto | Portland |
| #7 | Brooklyn | Sacramento |
| #8 | Miami | San Antonio |
Some brief comments:
Yes, no Warriors. They have no depth and if Steph or Draymond get hurt, they’re toast. Yes, Sacramento in (more on that below). Yes, I’m going out on a limb with Orlando as a 5 seed, but given how bad the East is, it’s not really that bold a call.
Also, these are regular season predictions. I don’t think the Rockets are the second best team in the West but I think they will try more in the regular season than the Lakers will.
“Best Bets”
I’ll start with the championship odds. This is where the most wacky stuff is going on as there are big arbs between the playoff odds and the title odds.
Longs: Utah 16-1, Denver 16-1, Portland 30-1
Shorts: Warriors 12-1, Lakers 4-1, Clippers 7-2
So everyone agrees the NBA is wide open this year, especially in the West. Eight teams make the playoffs and if you have a 50% chance to win the final, then the a priori odds of any Western contender are 15-1.
Portland made the West final last season and is 30-1. I think they are a longshot, but they are priced that way. They are also a team that has the ability to make a big in season trade to boost their odds. Utah and Denver are the same story. At 16-1, they are priced as average playoff teams and I think they are better than that so good value.
The Warriors short is easy. As you can see, I don’t even have them making the playoffs and, if I’m wrong on that, the best case is a 5 seed. The LA teams are reasonable favorites but the odds are too short. I wouldn’t give anyone more than 25% odds to win the West which means fair value is 7-1.
So if I don’t have the Warriors making the playoffs, should I bet on them not making the playoffs? No! Because the odds are more realistic in that market. They are -250 favorites to make the playoffs so that’s saying there’s about a 70% chance they make it. That seems fair. The Warriors have the 14th best odds to make the playoffs but the 6th best to win the title. That’s an anomaly.
However, look at the odds of other contenders. Utah and Denver are -2000 to make the playoffs but somehow are longer shots than the Warriors to win the title. The Lakers are -550 to make the playoffs which equates to 85%. Remember, they are 4-1 to win the title! That implies they are 40% odds to win the West…but only 85% to make the playoffs?
Playoff Longs: Lakers -550, Portland -170, Sacramento +240
Portland implies only a 62% chance to make the playoffs while Sacramento is only 29%. As proof that I made these picks a week ago, Sacramento is off to an 0-3 start. However, they have a ton of young talent and are the kind of team that could surprise. Also, they are not the kind of team that most people are looking to bet so you get longer odds than more popular teams with similar talent. I’ve already made the argument that Portland is being overlooked though I think the title bet is better priced than this one.