When I last wrote about State Farm, I suggested they had somewhere between $75-100B of excess capital. I commented at the time that their excess capital alone would make them the largest US insurer outside of Berkshire. Since then, State Farm has proceeded to post larger and larger underwriting losses Continue Reading
The Problem With Longer Auto Claims Patterns
Reserves for auto liability are supposed to be some of the easiest to analyze. Paid patterns are very stable, there are large numbers of claims, and duration is relatively short. If you booked your auto reserves short, it was probably because you chose to rather than because you missed a Continue Reading
The Unexpected Reason Trump Social Stock Is A Buy
Editor’s note: The following is primarily for sophisticated investors and, even then, not investment advice. For the rest of the readers, hopefully it is an interesting lesson on how markets often don’t make sense. Truth Social, the Donald Trump social media platform, has been a fascinating stock to watch. DJT Continue Reading