Reinsurance prices were up ~50% at January 1. While most observers would tell you my hurricane is responsible, I think that’s a myth. What we are now experiencing is a market hardening unlike previous cycles, except one. It is acting like the oil market of last year. What do I Continue Reading
Grading My 2022 Predictions: Pretty Good!
At the beginning of the year, I did a silly thing. I made a bunch of predictions for the year. This blog has a pretty strong record of predictions over the years, but I had never fallen for the nonsense of making topical annual predictions…until this year. Now, the thing Continue Reading
The Questions That Need To Be Asked On Earnings Calls
I’ve come to realize I’ve been doing this blog long enough that probably only a small minority at this point actually know what I used to do. So as a quick recap, my old career was investing in insurance companies. Probably the thing I was best known for was my Continue Reading
The Hot Pepper Scale: An Update
Over the summer, I assessed the odds of a post Covid market turn and introduced the Hot Pepper Scale assessment of hard markets as an alternative to the underwriting clock. Six months later, I thought it a good time to reassess where things stand. While the market is still improving, Continue Reading
What Would It Take To Truly Turn the Market?
In my last post, I addressed the lack of sufficient catalysts to lead to a hard market rather than another false dawn. Today, I will lay out some events that could change that. The fascinating thing about the insurance industry is we’re always one day away from a possible market Continue Reading
Is The Underwriting Clock Still Broken?
Everyone knows the old saw about the broken clock being right twice a day. Most readers are also familiar with the “underwriting clock” which shows the pattern of the insurance pricing cycle. Unfortunately, most insurance CEO’s version of the underwriting clock broke long ago somewhere around 8:30. They perpetually think Continue Reading
Ian’s Brief #3: Year In Review
Yes, it’s the obligatory end of the year post! Frankly, you could just read the “Best Of” page instead, but if you want a somewhat longer version, here you go… I’ve grouped together the various themes that tended to repeat over the year and many of which you can expect Continue Reading
Reissuing: The Path of Pricing
Given today’s Traveler’s news, I thought it was worth sending around again my commentary from last quarter on pricing and loss costs. I humbly suggest it is worth a re-read. My earlier longer post on pricing can be found below. If you want to skip the history and get to Continue Reading
The Path of Pricing: Bullish For All the Wrong Reasons
This is an update to my earlier discussion of P&C pricing to reflect the new data points we received during earnings this week. The good news is pricing will continue to get better. The bad news is it will get better because losses continue to get worse. The net impact Continue Reading
Could The Fed Kill the P&C Trade?
P&C Stock Outperformance P&C Insurance stocks have been one of the better performing areas in the market YTD, largely driven by excitement over improvements in pricing. Several names are up over 30% on the year. When one looks a little closer at the pattern of outperformance, it becomes apparent that Continue Reading