First off, this post is not pro either candidate. If you read it as such, it’s your bias, not mine. Truth is, I am anti both parties. Today’s topic is one that has received a lot of attention of late – political betting markets. I thought I would use some Continue Reading
Measuring The Tail Risk of Democracy
We’re now less than one year away from voting for the next President. If that doesn’t send a shudder down your spine, you are more resolute than I. The odds of an undisputed election seem fairly low. If you think what happened three years ago is the worst that can Continue Reading
Why the Polls Were Wrong and What We Can Learn From Them
As of the moment I write this, we don’t know who will be the next President and probably won’t for a few days. What we do know is the projection sites and the state polling were off base again and the election was much closer than anticipated. For example, using Continue Reading
Bloomberg Wins Iowa
No, this isn’t Fake News. I know Bloomberg didn’t even run in Iowa. But he still won it cause everyone else lost! Loyal readers may remember I recommended buying futures on Bloomberg for President at 200-1 last fall. Yes, I am bragging about that call again! For non-loyal readers, insights Continue Reading