Editor’s note: I’ll have an update on what is going on at Informed later in the month. As Evan Greenberg likes to say….stay tuned! Editors’s note #2: Yes, I know LMND bought MILE last night, but this note was already written. We’ll get to that news some other time. For Continue Reading
Ian’s Brief #8: Vaccine Edition
Obviously, the big story of the week is the great news around the Pfizer vaccine. I have a number of thoughts about what this means which means it’s time to combine them all into a Brief. Revisiting Sell the News A few months back I predicted that a vaccine announcement Continue Reading
The Vaccine Ethical Quandary
I’m sure everyone saw the news that Moderna had some positive early results on its vaccine prospects. As an aside, if the vaccine doesn’t make it to market, prepare for a limit loss on their D&O given they raised over $1B of equity the day of the news. However, let’s Continue Reading
Will the Brokers Bear the Cost of Business Interruption?
This is going to be a very short post but wanted to get this thought out there and no reason to write more than is necessary. There is obviously a lot of concern about the potential for insurers to be found responsible for covid related business interruption losses. There are Continue Reading
A Plan to Safely Start the NBA on May 1
Yes, we have bigger problems in this country than whether the NBA returns or not this season. However, as I was thinking of test cases to re-open the economy, the NBA actually would be one of the easiest ones to execute with the added bonus of providing some much needed Continue Reading
What the Government Should Be Doing NOW!
The header says it all. The government is way over their heads managing this crisis. They are focused on the wrong things. As I’ve said in prior posts, we have focused all our attention on managing the risk of a hospital bed shortfall. That is the wrong approach. First, it Continue Reading
Banning Buybacks Brings New Problems
While the stimulus bill passed this week did a lot of good things, it included one really short sighted provision that will lead to some undesirable unintended consequences. Any public company that takes assistance is banned from buying back stock (or paying dividends) for the duration of the loan plus Continue Reading
Policy Ideas To Save The Economy
Note: Things are moving at a fast pace so some of these ideas are already starting to happen. Hopefully, more of them will soon. The problem with the current approach is it’s too one size fits all and is taking an intolerable economic cost. Before someone suggests it is crass Continue Reading
The Only Thing We Have To Fear Is What To Do With All The Excess Toilet Paper
Key takeaways (warning, this is a long post):1) Be cautious about scary numbers that don’t pass the smell test.2) Reflexivity will greatly lower the ultimate impact.3) The biggest risk is hospital capacity.4) If you are not a senior and don’t have other health risks, don’t panic if you get sick. Continue Reading
Dumb Things Smart People Are Saying About Corona and the Economy
As if the fear about getting the corona virus isn’t bad enough, we have a secondary virus going around: bad analysis. While this virus won’t get you sick, it will hurt your bank account and might even cost you your job as the decreased economic activity due to fear has Continue Reading