Everyone reading this thinks they know what the time value of money is. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future, blah blah blah. But one thing I’ve noticed over the years is people don’t value the time value of money. What do I mean by Continue Reading
Accelerant Extinguishes Its Stock Listing
You may have seen the news last week that Accelerant is going private after just a year in the public markets. The acquisition price ($20.25) is slightly below the IPO price ($21), though an improvement over the roughly 50% decline since the IPO. I never got around to writing about Continue Reading
Situationally Aware, Permanent Blind Spot
Many of you probably saw the news last week about the large AI investment firm, Situational Awareness (led by AI wunderkind Leopold Aschenbrenner), that collapsed as a result of the recent pullback in tech stocks. If so, you’ve probably seen some of the analysis regarding why it fell – too Continue Reading
Nvidia Enters Financial Guarantee Insurance
Those of you with long memories may recall how one of the biggest casualties of the financial crisis were the financial guarantors. Companies like Ambac and MBIA grew out of their traditional business of guaranteeing payment of municipal debt to guaranteeing mortgage securities like CDOs. We now have the AI Continue Reading
State Farm: Is What’s Bad For Agents Good For Policyholders?
I’ve written a lot about State Farm’s challenges over the years. I’ve also written a lot about the pressures on the personal lines business overall in the US. So some of you may be surprised I have yet to write about State Farm’s recent announcements regarding fundamental changes to their Continue Reading
Do Insurers Need To Be In Predictions Markets?
Yes, insurers should participate in prediction markets. But maybe not in the way you think? To state the obvious, I’m not suggesting insurers should allocate some of their investment portfolios to whether the Yankees will win tonight. Rather, I think there is a role of insurers to offer proprietary products Continue Reading
Is SpaceX A Good D&O Risk?
In light of today’s SpaceX IPO, I thought I should address whether insurers are making a gigantic mistake writing D&O for the company (it has been reported that SpaceX is looking to buy a $200M tower). After all, Tesla famously had issues around Elon’s uninsurability leading him to have to Continue Reading
The S&P Is Going To 10K (On The Way to 5K)
Honestly, I really think we’re going to 9000 before heading to 6000, so why say 10K and 5K? But let’s address the substance. Why make this call at all and, specifically, why now? Why make this call when the odds are high that it will be wrong? Why not? The Continue Reading
The College Admissions Oligopoly
It’s college commencement season so it seems like an appropriate time for me to write about how messed up college admissions are in the US. I am finally free to speak out with my kids now all in (or admitted to) college, so here’s what I learned from navigating the Continue Reading
The Truth Behind Hedge Fund and Private Credit “Excess” Returns
I have a lot I’ve wanted to say about private credit and I will get to that at some point in the future, but before I do, I wanted to start with something simpler. Most people don’t understand that these alternative investment products (I assume private equity and venture capital Continue Reading