Editor’s Note: This will be the last post for the year. I’ll be back in early January with something fun for everyone to debate. Progressive recently announced a special dividend of $13.50/sh, equal to over $8B. To put in context how large that is, it amounted to nearly 25% of Continue Reading
Why Chubb Shouldn’t Buy AIG
Today’s note is a little different. It’s essentially a direct letter to Evan Greenberg that I am sharing with the rest of you. You may have seen reporting that Chubb approached AIG about a takeover. As I’m sure you all know, Evan has deep personal ties to AIG as it’s Continue Reading
Would It Be So Bad If AI Took Our Jobs?
Last time I wrote a fairly negative view of the impact of AI. Today, I’m going to explore some of the ramifications of an optimistic view of AI’s potential. AI has the potential to be the next Industrial Revolution. There are obvious benefits to this from the increase in productivity Continue Reading
The Bear Case on AI
(Editor’s Note: The timing of this note is not ideal for reasons I explain in the postscript. Also, this is much longer than usual given the depth of the topic which is part of the reason for the delay.) Let me start with a disclaimer. This is not a prediction Continue Reading
AIG M&A Strategy: Dumb & Dumber
Well, I had something else almost ready to go for this week but that can wait because there’s some big insurance news to address. AIG announced two significant transactions last week – one for a 35% stake in Convex and the other for renewal rights to the much maligned Everest Continue Reading
Financial Modeling 101: How To Account For A Hurricane Free Year
I need a better title for this post but I can’t come up with one, so hopefully you all will catch on to the purpose shortly. What I am attempting to do is share some insight into how I used to do my financial analysis different from most other investors. Continue Reading
Are D&O Loss Ratios Headed To Zero?
While much media attention has been given to the SEC considering eliminating quarterly reporting for public companies, there was a much more consequential decision made by the SEC recently with major implications for insurers. Surprisingly, I have seen very little discussion about this change as it potentially eliminates major sources Continue Reading
My Hurricane Katrina Retrospective
Well, it’s turned out to be a light hurricane season (though, yes, it’s not over) so I thought I would, belatedly, join all the others doing their 20 year Hurricane Katrina retrospective. The main difference is I will tell it primarily from my perspective, which is less about the human Continue Reading
The Role of Liability Laws In A Divided America
Why are Americans so divided? There is a villain here that never gets discussed. It’s called Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. This was the provision that shielded internet providers, and later social media networks, from liability for the content of users. Why is this so important? It means Continue Reading
Six Degrees of John Charman: Sompo Acquires Aspen
With last week’s news that Aspen agreed to be acquired by Sompo for $3.5B, I thought it was worth doing a brief retrospective on the Aspen saga and how they ended up here along with the delicious irony of Sompo being the ultimate acquirer. The recent sale was actually Aspen’s Continue Reading